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CNN
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At the showroom in Apple’s headquarters after he unveiled the Vision Pro mixed reality headset in June, CEO Tim Cook smiled for photos as he stood next to the company’s new product.
Apple took care of it the Vision Pro mostly shows up that day, just for the view in a few specific details, confirm the fact that Vision Pro continues to work. (Even now, the reported making design changes to make it cleaner and sleeker ahead of its official launch next year).
The Vision Pro will be Apple’s riskiest product launch in years. Cook has long talked about the potential for augmented reality to help people connect and collaborate. Now he has to prove a machine that mixes both reality and augmented reality, a technology that superimposes virtual images on live videos of the real world, the reality of the future of computers. And it won’t be an easy sell: It’s a $3,499 computer that you use on your face.
This is Cook’s first new product in 7 years and only the third in his position as CEO since the death of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.
The head will come at a time when the augmented reality (XR) market – a segment that includes augmentation, automation and mixed reality – has been gradually under the control of consumers. The Vision Pro will also have special applications and experiences out of the gate and heart to tie it to a battery case like an iPhone.
But Jeremy Bailenson, the director of Stanford University’s Virtual Human Interaction Lab, says companies like Apple are buying consumers. will end up using special heads for just about everything. “Let’s use the road, but when we find a buyer,” he said. “Betting on VR becomes the new risky phone.”
Despite running a $3 trillion company, with hundreds of billions of cash on hand, there’s a lot at stake for Cook. Digital companies don’t usually last long in the industry, as the excitement and new technology take the world by storm and eventually get dismissed. the leader. (See: HP, IBM, Cisco … and what Apple did to Microsoft).
IPhone sales are no longer rising. Ultimately, Cook & Co. will need something to change. But the Vision Pro skeptics are not convinced: The device is entering an uncertain market while facing design challenges and high prices.
At the same time, there is a lot of potential. Almost every new Apple product promises to use different screens to change the way we live. Vision Pro has the ability to do all that in a more impressive way, and it can bring new joy to the market in ways similar to what the iPod did for music players or the iPhone for smartphones.
It could also end up being the defining product of Cook’s legacy.
If Tim Cook retires today, he will go down as one of the most successful CEOs of the decade. Under his leadership, Apple’s market has grown by 700%. He also introduced the Apple Watch and the successful AirPods.
Cook is best known for his operational skills, rather than being a product visionary, but in the 12 years he has led Apple since the death of Steve Jobs, he has been taking risks. There were also many mistakes under his reign, such as the infamous introduction of Apple Maps, “Batterygate,” allegations of poor labor conditions in its factories and critics because of the great respect for the Chinese government, one of its most important and fastest growing markets.
But now Cook wants to add to his legacy the one thing he didn’t do as often as Jobs: launch a special hardware device.
Tim Bajarin, a long-time Apple analyst and president of technology research firm Creative Strategies, said risk-taking is a big part of the company’s ethos. Work, for example, is known to have changed the way personal computers were first introduced to the candy-colored iMacs in 1999, and later to the iPod and iPhone. (Cook joined Apple in 1998 as an executive VP for global sales and operations).
“Throughout that time, Cook was Steve’s right-hand man who ran these shows,” Bajarin told CNN. “I think it instilled in him the idea that you don’t break new ground until you break new ground.”
In recent years, Apple has adopted a mantra “not the first but the best”, taking its time to develop new products before rushing them to the market. At the company’s 2017 Worldwide Developer Conference, the company laid the foundation for Vision Pro by introducing a platform called. ARKit it will allow developers to build augmented reality into apps. It showed how people can do various tasks such as placing furniture in their homes before making a purchase and put the window to its use in video games, education – such as allowing students to practice surgery – and sports, in the years to come.
In many ways, the Vision Pro is better positioned for success on day one than previous products, such as the iPod or iPhone, which did not have an iTunes Store or App Store, respectively. , on launch day.
“They’ve come out with hundreds of thousands of developers who can develop for Vision Pro from scratch,” Bajarin said.
But the technology — and the demand for it — remains unproven. While Apple has been working behind closed doors on Vision Pro for years, other companies’ It’s just a limited use of the heads, according to Eric Abbruzzese, director at ABI Research. For example, Meta’s Quest 2 is the most successful title by “a great deal” – about 20 million units were shipped in its lifetime, he said. In comparison, the iPad line averages between 10 million and 15 million shipments per quarter for years. (The Apple Watch has the same number).
“The Vision Pro is perhaps more comparable to the launch of the iPhone – there was competition, and Apple knew that the first generation would not be a great success, but the way for the improved device more in time and making it easier to find is the main goal,” Abbruzzese said. “The Vision Pro will not replace millions of units, but it has the potential to define the product category (mixed reality headset) for the market.”
Although Cook has praised the power of augmented reality for years – “we’re high on AR in the long run,” he said above. a 2016 earnings call – he also criticized his performance. Cook was called before virtual reality “very interesting” but said last year that it is better for periods and “it is not a way to communicate well.” Apple’s approach with Vision Pro is intended to allow users to connect and improve while experiencing immersive worlds.
Here’s a general testimonial from people (including the author) who have tried Vision Pro: It’s easy to imagine using Vision Pro for watching movies and TV. Apple is likely to get buy-in from Hollywood filmmakers to create head-only experiences due to the company’s close ties to the entertainment industry, including former member the Apple board and Disney CEO Bob Iger. (Iger announced during the event that Disney + will be available at launch). NBA Commissioner Adam Silver recently said working closely with Apple it brings a technologically advanced experience to the Vision Pro, too.
But it was more difficult to think about looking at pictures, texting or doing a search in Safari while wearing the head. Bailenson, the founding director of Stanford University’s Virtual Human Interaction Lab, believes that audio recordings are a powerful medium but only in limited amounts, and for about 30 minutes at a time. It is because of man the special system is weak because of the different scenarios of horror from the real world, he said.
“Through hundreds of studies, we’ve learned that VR is best reserved for real-world experiences that would be dangerous, impossible, intimidating or expensive,” Bailenson said.
This includes, for example, training firefighters, rehabilitating stroke victims or practicing difficult conversations in the workplace. “(No) checking your email, watching movies and general office work … .”
It’s also an issue of user satisfaction and comfort, no matter how well-designed a headset is. Let’s remember how Oculus was founded Palmer Lucky was proven years ago after he made a headline on the cover of Time magazine; likewise, a photo of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg walking next to a group of people wearing masks during a tech event was derided as “dystopian” and “scary.” As put in by Phillip Shoemaker, a former manager for the Apple App store a tweet follow the Vision Pro feature. “No one looks good with a headscarf. We all look like big people.”
Some believed that the pitch for the head of Apple also felt vague. At the beginning of the disease, many people jumped at the chance to do these special things while we worked and socialized almost from home. Now, with many workers in the office and companies looking to reduce costs amid economic uncertainty, the justification for the expensive machine seems to be lacking. clear.
But Abbruzzese argues that the time may be right in the schedule, citing years of investment, research development and targeted sales as a “benefit” for the company. However, even if there is a final fidelity and impressive data on the hardware, it may be difficult to convince the developers, quick installers and some commercial customers to pay for the device.
“If the Vision Pro ends the hybrid vision, then it will be like the launch of the iPhone in some ways – not an instant victory, but a plan for many years to change phones forever ,” he said.
If it falls below expectations, it can be called a new idea that the market is not ready for, he added. “There may be a rough quarter or two with shareholders expressing their displeasure, but the company has many other successes in the portfolio in the short term.”
But Cook will be without his defining product.