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New York’s highest court gave Democrats a long-coveted victory Tuesday: the power to redraw the state’s 26 districts before the 2024 election.
The party is widely expected to take advantage of the majority of six Republican seats. Even subtle changes in the lines from Syracuse to Long Island could make it difficult for Republicans to hold on to their seats and three seats of the House.
But arriving at a final map may be more difficult than it seems. The committee will first have two parts in the draft, before the Democratic-controlled State Legislature. The New York court showed last year that they were willing to enforce the state law in doing something. And Democrats can conflict with their own priorities.
“You can see the Republican districts that are more difficult to hold,” said Tim Persico, who watched the Democrats campaign during the 2022 redistricting campaign in New York. . “But I don’t think we’re going to see big, big changes in the map.”
Here is a list of Republicans whose results may rest in the hands of the pollsters.
Brandon Williams at Syracuse
Representative Brandon Williams, a former nuclear power plant official who represents Syracuse and rural areas, may be the most dangerous of the six new Republicans. President Biden won his district by eight points in 2020; Mr. Williams won by less than one point.
Democrats still have the power to flip the seat. By incorporating Ithaca, a free college town in the Finger Lakes region, into the district, they could make it almost impossible for Mr. Williams. But the move could be risky: The party tried to do that as part of a gerrymander last year, and was struck down in court.
Marc Molinaro (and Pat Ryan) in the Hudson Valley
The Ithaca move could also create a new political headache for Democrats. The town is now part of an at-large statewide district represented by Marc Molinaro, a moderate Republican. Without Ithaca, a district that voted for President Biden by four points would probably be safe Republican.
Mapmakers can solve that problem by expanding Mr. Molinaro in the north part of the big city of Albany, is a strong blue area. Or, they can decide to get rid of the seat like red and eat other vacant parts to help on his neighbor, the representative Pat Ryan, the only New York Democrat won the swing seat last year.
Mike Lawler and the Westchester Question
Representative Mike Lawler is a thorn in the side of the Democrats. He won a district that President Biden won by 10 points and includes parts of Westchester County in 2022 by defeating the party’s campaign chairman by less than one point.
The Democrats will soon get their paycheck. Even small changes, such as dropping the bottom of the county a few miles south to include free areas like White Plains or the Hudson River towns of Irvington and Dobbs Ferry, the entire district can be changed from the reach.
Mr. predicted. Lawler can still win but says it will be difficult for the mapmakers to lock in lines that are too biased.
“If they do something inappropriate, they will go back to court,” he said.
A Democrat could be at risk, too
The changes in the district of Mr. Lawler could have an immediate impact on his congressional neighbor, Representative Jamaal Bowman. Usually that doesn’t matter because the seat is Mr. Bowman is safe with the Democratic. But the left is facing a serious challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, and the integration of the district can fall out of balance.
Mr. wants Bowman Co-Op City, a large apartment complex in the Bronx with a majority of Black residents, returns to his district. It was lost when a special master appointed by the court wrote the map last year.
On the other hand, his path could be more dangerous if the mapmakers exchange, say, the cities of the Hudson River for the middle parts of the district of Mr. Lawler.
Adding to the confusion: The Democratic chairman of the redistricting commission is Rep. Latimer and has long been interested in succeeding him as district leader.
The Third Big Island
Three seats on Long Island favor the Democrats on paper. Republicans won them all in 2022 as the city’s stronghold went straight to the city because of concerns about crime and affordability.
That leaves Democrats with a dilemma: try to make it easier to flip one or two seats, or improve all three to a lesser degree.
“My ears are falling out of all the conversation,” said Steve Israel, a former House Democrat from Long Island.
The easiest to replace is the Queens and Nassau County seat held by George Santos until he was kicked out of Congress. The Legislature’s map, rejected by the courts last year, accomplished that by extending the district into Long Island Sound. But some Democrats say they expect small changes this time: perhaps pulling in neighboring communities represented by Anthony D’Esposito or Nick LaLota.
At least one Republican appears to be safe for now. Democrats said they would be surprised to see the party clash with Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis after she was ridiculed for trying to unify last year with ultraliberal Park Slope. , Brooklyn.