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BRUSSELS – Come back, Donald Tusk!
It is likely that a regularly appointed Polish prime minister will return to his old home office at the European Council in Brussels next week, for what is shaping up to be a head of the EU leaders.
For many Europeans, Tusk’s return to the EU’s top table promises to bring back the good old days before 2015, when Poland’s conservative, conservative government rose to power. under the Law and Justice (PiS) party and spent eight years throwing zippers into the EU machinery. .
But the new Tusk can be very different from the old one. Instead of presiding over a country confident of coming into its own as a European superpower, he will maintain a deeply divided nation after eight years of populist rule in which Poland became the bad boy of European politics.
There is a sense of uncertainty for the former Tusk – from 2007 to 2014 – when France, Germany and Poland were often united as a powerful engine to drive EU business. A triad known as the “Weimar Triangle,” a group formed in 1991 that flourished to a point under Tusk that made him a sure candidate for the presidency of the Council of Europe from 2014 to 2019.
In a major change in European politics, PiS failed to win a third term in office and lost Poland’s general election on October 15 – a victory that gave hope on the continent to able to defeat populist parties. Tusk is apparently set to be sworn in as Prime Minister by President Andrzej Duda on December 13.
“Together, we are reporting the importance of the change of government in Poland,” said a senior EU official who, like others in this story, declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak. to speak broadly. “That plan changes the balance of the Council of Europe, because you might have a better government. And that’s a change in my mind.”
A French minister added: “Tusk sent a clear message … we are back.”
But those high expectations may quickly go hard in reality in Poland, where Tusk often limits the space for action.
He will have to manage a combination of four different groups ranging from socialists to more urban free-market and social conservative agrarians, and will run into strong opposition from a PiS very angry. Duda, a PiS loyalist, will still have significant power to hinder Tusk’s political goals thanks to his veto power.
Instead of leading in Brussels, most of his time and energy will be spent in Warsaw trying to rebuild a broken justice system, cleaning up the government, media and state institutions of loyal PiS and shepherding commissions it is about exposing the wrongdoings of foreign authorities.
Hoping for a revival
One of the biggest problems for Brussels under the PiS rule is Poland, one of the bloc’s most important countries, which has faced ongoing legal problems. from judicial independence to media freedom and LGBTQ+ rights.
The main hope is that Tusk can help bring Warsaw back with the EU, and rob the Hungarian Victor Orbán of being a key ally in his own efforts to undermine the priorities of the EU.
But there are other things at stake for Brussels. The EU is laying the groundwork for a historic expansion process, opening the door for some countries in the future, of which Ukraine will be the largest and most important.
It is important to make sure that Poland is in that process – but it is not plain sailing. Although Poland has a deep historical feeling for the war between Ukraine and Russia, welcomed millions of refugees, and supplied weapons and ammunition, the country is also the front line of the cause that will making it very difficult to integrate Kyiv into the single market. Polish farmers and truck drivers have reacted angrily to what they see as Ukrainians destroying their businesses.
Tusk’s experience as president of the European Council raised the hope that he would be able to manage these challenges and pull off the revival, returning Warsaw and Paris and Berlin.
“He knows how the machine works, he knows a lot of people, it’s like meeting an old friend,” said one EU official.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen host Tusk, from the center-right European People’s Party, after the Polish elections in October, with an official announcement, although Tusk was not appointed as the new leader of the government.
“It’s like he’s been prime minister for a long time,” said an EU representative at the meeting, emphasizing that others celebrated Tusk’s return in more discreet ways.
According to a senior French minister, the government will come “very pro-European” to find opportunities for new cooperation, both bilaterally and within the Weimar system.
Tusk’s government is also expected to ease Polish-German relations after anti-German sentiment fueled PiS’s election campaign, including demands for wartime reparations, Nazi references and frequent accusations that that Tusk is a “German representative.”
“The relationship with Germany will improve because it is so bad that it is difficult to improve,” said Piotr Buras of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But this does not automatically mean a successful Weimar Triangle, Buras stressed, because a good Franco-German relationship is a precondition for that.
“Adding Poland to that discussion will not make things easier,” he said. “To be honest, the expectations about the Weimar Triangle are usually very frightening.”
Another EU official also said that as long as the problems in Germany prevent the Franco-German fire from burning, any talk of adding Poland will surely be frowned upon. It is too much to ask Tusk to heal the Franco-German divide.
“Yes, Tusk can bring a positive energy but better by avoiding the Polish ‘no’. But not a lubricant between France and Germany,” said the official.
Not so fast
Domestic politics in Poland could also speed up the end of the marriage between Brussels and Warsaw.
The most difficult issue is what, how Poland can get €35 billion in EU aid and loans for the recovery of the coronavirus disease as well as the €76.5 billion of common EU funds – frozen by Brussels because of Poland’s withdrawal. rule of law. Tusk spoke on the basis of the recovery of EU funds.
Polish media reported earlier this week Tusk will try to use his first position in the EU to ask the Commission to release €6.9 billion from the bloc’s pandemic fund once he takes office, even if Poland does not officially meet any of the so-called important events. however.
However, Poland will eventually meet the legal requirements to release the rest of the cash.
Although Tusk has pledged that he will do the right thing after taking office, he will still face a tough ride from Duda or the country’s Constitutional Court, controlled by PiS loyalists. Any law that cancels the judicial reform must go through Duda, who can veto it or ask the court to review it.
The first French minister said that Paris will closely monitor the new agreement of the Polish government. “He had to prove his position (during the competition), so we don’t think we are in paradise.”
In fact, in the campaign before the election in October, Tusk used the same information to PiS, especially on immigration from Muslim countries.
With Tusk back in power in Warsaw Poland will not be a happy partner for the rest of the EU. There were disagreements on issues such as coal, agriculture and Russia when he was the first prime minister, and many of those issues have not changed.
Poland is still among the most powerful military forces of Ukraine in the EU, it will be slower than other countries to go green in energy, a close friend of the US and commitments to buy the most of the American and South Korean weapons, and they are in it. appealing to a politically powerful agricultural sector.
Tusk is also interested in efforts to strengthen EU integration.
“Among other things, that is the reason why I sought victory in these elections, so that Poland would be involved in European decisions again, and not the other way around. We will decide what direction the transition will take in the European Union,” he said last week in the Polish Parliament.
“Many in Europe will probably be surprised by how much continuity there is,” Buras said. “It will be very different in speech and behavior. That is also important. But when it comes to important things, protecting the interests of the Polish nation … it will not be very different in many files.
Tusk may not be able to expect much breathing space after taking power, as Poland will enter a two-year term of permanent rule, with local elections in April, followed by the European elections in June and, finally, a president. election in 2025.
Barbara Moens reports from Brussels. Wojciech Kość reports from Warsaw. Clea Calcutt reports from Paris. Stuart Lau and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting from Brussels.