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The Dodgers and Rays are talking about a trade to give up the right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outside Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles instead Ryan Pepiot and outside Jonny Deluca, as previously reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic listen toobe warned that the transaction is not complete and the framework remains subject to change.
The 30-year-old Glasnow is one of the most popular trade candidates of the season, given his massive $25MM salary for next season and his proximity to free agency. He is entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our list of the game’s preseason Top 25 prospects.
Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a need for starting pitching and won’t look at the salary of the Tampa Bay ace. As it is, the tour in Los Angeles includes Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmett Sheehan, and fifth place on air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone is in the home selection.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan made more than 22 major league starts.
The Dodgers’ rotation has been plagued by injuries in the past calendar year. Ace is a longtime and current free agent Clayton Kershaw could still re-sign with the club, but he underwent shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until mid-summer – if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent revision and Tommy John flexor surgery after the All-Star break.
While Glasnow is far from a model of consistency, he’s certainly a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings was a career high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season will be just the second time he has reached 100 innings at the MLB level. Glasnow made a string of starts in the strikeout-shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 outings on the mound was a career high. He spent much of his major league career on the injured list due to Tommy John surgery, a different type of hand injury and a severe concussion, among other ailments.
Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a top prospect in Pittsburgh, but things just haven’t come together for the Bucs, who are struggling in a highs and lows before being traded to the Rays together. Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the reverse transaction sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like many other pitchers, Glasnow broke down under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he has a 3.20 ERA while striking out 34.1% of his opponents with a 7.8% walk rate. He often works above his ground ball rate and posted a career-best 51.2% mark this past season.
Margot, too, can become a free agent after the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option and a $2MM buyout for 2025. season He’s set to make $10MM in 2024, bringing the total remaining guarantees on his deal to $12MM.
The .264/.310/.376 batting line posted by the 29-year-old Margot in 336 plate appearances in 2023 is about seven percent below average, according to the wRC+ (93), but also right in line with the massive .264/.317/.375 projects he put up over four seasons with Ave. In general, the below-average offense from Margot is an acceptable trade-off for his impressive defense and solid value on the lanes.
That will not be the case in 2023, however. Margot missed most of the 2022 season with a sore patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive ratings in 2023 fell close to average. Statcast shows that Margot’s outfield and base hit rates both dropped in ’23, which isn’t surprising to hear for a player in his first season back. a serious knee injury. If he is close to his pre-injury status, he could return to his status as a plus-one, but that is not certain.
A healthy Margot would be a perfect fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle more time in the right field – Mookie Betts has already been tipped to be their starting secondary next year – but Heyward will be a huge hit. Margot’s right-handed bat produced a career .281/.341/.420 against left-handed pitching. He’s strong at the plate, and if he can get his defense back to first base, the Dodgers may feel like they’re not losing too much defensive value by swapping Heyward for left-handed Margot. Margot can also be an old defense replacement for Chris Taylor to the left, and he is good insurance in the center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any time.
As for the players Tampa Bay is reportedly targeting, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays have always wanted: an MLB-ready player with five seasons in the club who can step right in. on the roster to replace a star player who was traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old has started 10 games and made seven appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — though some about in prime numbers.
Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is higher than league average and he’s a bit of a homer (1.49 HR/9). He was lucky that many of those long balls came with the bases empty, but a big ball pitcher prone to homers is a risk. Field independent measures such as FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more conservative than Pepiot’s average.
Pepiot works a three-pitch mix – fastball, changeup, slider – sits at 94 mph with his heater and cancels the lefty with a plus changeup. His pitching has yielded some positive results thus far in the big leagues, but draft reports from his promising days have revealed it’s a slightly below-average offering, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty that no strong third-pitch offering lacks. Pepiot doesn’t come with the kind of lasting concern that Glasnow does, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and not hitting IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed several months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a serious injury.
Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 hitter in the game in early 2023, saying he improved on the slide down the stretch. the average but it was done to the detriment of some of its positive change. Pepiot’s command is also given in depth readings and long plays, with BA’s scouting report stating that he often struggles to stay behind the fifth mark. This isn’t a big problem for the Aves or the Dodgers; both clubs usually have deep bullpens and do not shy away from five-and-dive starters to face a lineup only twice.
Pepiot can be regulated for the next five years and will not be eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which is sure to add to his appeal for the Rays. Trading him for Glasnow may be a step down in terms of innings pitching, but Pepiot will give them an option in 2025 and beyond, if the Rays have him. Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan both coming back from major arm surgery.
At the same time, trading Glasnow for a minor-league starter (and possibly giving up some or all of Margot’s money) would give the Rays the necessary cap room to add the shortstop. free (or receiving trades and a mid-range salary. ) for the upcoming season 2024. As it is, Ray has Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civalehigh expectations first Taj Bradley (who struggled in his 2023 rookie appearance) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the planned cycle.
Not to be forgotten in all this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a strong first effort of his own. He can be controlled for six more seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed pitcher who can play all three outfield spots – similar to the established Margot. Deluca only played in 45 games in the MLB majors last season but posted a .262/.311/.429 batting line in that span. He also hit a combined .294/.390/.566 between Double-A and Triple-A.
The production is terrific, though scouting reports at American baseball and FanGraph note that the first replacement is still working to match the right-to-right models and at the moment it seems like a better option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen rates Deluca as a below-average hitter but a solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball player and excellent athlete who can be portrayed as a versatile option at all three outfield positions, a skill set that has used by the Rays in the past. He also has two years left on his league option, which adds to his appeal.
Although it seems that there are still some obstacles that have not been cleared, there is a trade-off for both parties. The Dodgers would trade a pair of controllable but unproven pitchers for a top rotation upgrade and a year or two as a right-field partner for Heyward — one who seems more likely to able to run the center field rather than the young man on the outside. they will divorce. Glasnow is an easy candidate to offer next winter, so LA will get a low price if he leaves. He is also an LA native who signed an extension in the past, so it seems possible that a second multi-year deal is possible to extend their ownership.
The Rays, meanwhile, will turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB relief that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term relief in 2024 and possibly more Pepiot in the 2025 rotation group includes McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the kind of switch that both teams are willing to make – usually to good effect, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit in different ways). ).